-제목: Asia's rebalancing and growth

-저자 :  Soyoung Kim, Jong‐Wha Lee,  Warwick J. McKibbin

-출판정보 : WORLD ECON. 2018; 1-23
 

-논문초록

The paper investigates the impact of Asia's demand rebalancing and supply‐side productivity changes on long‐term economic growth in Asia and worldwide. Results from a panel vector autoregression model show that a productivity–neutral demand‐rebalancing shock has no permanent effect on Asian output, whereas labour productivity shocks have significant, positive and permanent effects. Simulations using a global intertemporal multisector general equilibrium model suggest that labour productivity shocks increase the foreign GDP over time, but rebalancing shocks have a negative international spillover effect. In addition, labour productivity shocks help in rebalancing. Structural reforms promoting labour productivity growth along with rebalancing policies across Asia can achieve higher economic growth worldwide.