South Korean President Park Geun-hye's upcoming visit to Beijing in late June will be a crucial summit in redressing the existing fragile security architecture in Northeast Asia. It comes on the heels of Chinese President Xi Jinping's informal summit at Rancho Mirage, California, with US President Barack Obama, where the leaders of the two most powerful countries in the world discussed how to enhance their strategic cooperation on many issues.

The two leaders agreed to work together to resolve a wide range of problems, including North Korean denuclearization. It was a major step forward, but there is still a long way to go before the countries involved in the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula can produce a lasting mechanism of peace and security in Northeast Asia.

In May, the Bank of China suspended business with North Korea's Foreign Trade Bank in line with the Chinese government's decision to strengthen trade and financial sanctions on North Korea.

Because the North Korean bank was not on the original sanction list of the UN Security Council resolution, issued after its third nuclear test in February, the fresh action was interpreted as a sign of China's strategic rethinking on its relations with North Korea. However, it is premature to conclude that China has decided to redraw its traditional ties with North Korea.

In fact, there are three options available to China at the moment. The first is to maintain its conventional thermostat-like posture aiming only to prevent North Korea from extremes. Overheating could invite a range of unwelcome consequences, such as war and foreign intervention. Overcooling could cause North Korea's collapse and a chaos on its border.

We cannot know for sure if the recent developments, marked by the stiffened sanctions and Xi's alleged unfriendly reception of North Korea's Vice Marshal Choe Ryong-hae in Beijing, were in line with the Chinese government's thermostat-like posture or a major overhauling of its North Korean strategies. However, this first option has caused nothing more than the prolongation of problems on the Korean Peninsula.

Because of China's seemingly hard-line stance against North Korea, it agreed to return to the negotiation table with South Korea recently. However, the North Korean government may return to confrontation as soon as China relaxes its grip.

The second option is to "normalize" its relations with Pyongyang. There have been an increasing number of voices calling for the drastic revamping of China's relations with North Korea.

One of the major cases is the op-ed piece written by Deng Yuwen, deputy editor of Study Times, the journal of Party School of the Central Committee of CPC, entitled "China should abandon North Korea."

Normalization refers to the reorganization of bilateral relations from the current abnormal structure of dependency, with 90 percent of the North's trade going through China, into a symmetrical one between two neighboring states in terms of political and economic relations.

In this option, North Korea will have to diversify its external relations and improve ties with South Korea, the US, Japan and other countries to secure food and energy.

The third option is strengthening its relations with North Korea and the introduction of a major economic reconstruction scheme, similar to the Marshall Plan.

However, the strengthening of alliance and economic ties with Beijing is not always a blessing for North Korea. Just like the US prevented South Korea's former president Park Chung-hee from developing nuclear weapons in the 1970s, the Chinese government will likely step up its control on North Korea, which will go against the North's ideology of juche ("self-reliance").

At the moment, we are not really sure which option the Chinese government has taken.

The first option does not promise any positive development in a real sense. If China maintains the current level of assertiveness and presses North Korea in a steadfast manner, it shows it has taken the second option. This will herald a new phase of international relations in Northeast Asia in which North Korea will have to engage more proactively with the neighboring countries for survival. The third option is unlikely, but still worth considering.

The second and third options would mean that China has taken on more international responsibilities in the direction of reconstructing the instability-ridden Northeast Asia, whereas the first option would symbolize the boycotting of its responsibilities as a new great power.

The author is HK Research Professor of Asiatic Research Institute at Korea University. opinion@globaltimes.com.cn

(원본 링크: http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/789460.shtml#.UdESO-eH48k)