[ARI Working Paper Seires No. 7]



Public Opinion and Security Stability in the Taiwan Strait



by Emerson M.S. Niou

(Professor, Duke University)

Notes on Contributor

Emerson M.S. Niou (Ph.D., U. of Texas at Austin, 1987) is Professor of Political Science at Duke University. He is the co-author of The Balance of Power, Cambridge University Press, 1989. His recent publications include: “A Theory of Economic Sanctions and Issue Linkage,” with Dean Lacy, Journal of Politics, 2004; “Understanding Taiwan Independence and Its Policy Implications,” Asian Survey, July 2004; “Term Limits as a Response to Incumbency Advantage,” with Kongpin Chen, Journal of Politics, May 2005; and “External Threat and Collective Action,” with Guofu Tan, Economic Inquiry, 43(3), July 2005, pp. 1-12. His current research projects include: (1) security balance in the Taiwan Strait, (2) institutions and reforms in China, and (3) alliance formation and alliance politics.

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Abstract

Taiwan’s democratization has placed Taiwan independence as one of the most important issues on its domestic politics and on the security balance in the Taiwan Strait. Surveys have been conducted regularly to track shifts in Taiwanese public sentiment on this issue. In this paper, I present a new measure of the Taiwan independence issue and show how voters’ preferences can be influenced by the United States and China’s foreign policies.